Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Positive

Inflation News

This morning’s batch of economic news started with the release of June’s Personal Income and Outlays report at 8:30 AM ET. Drawing the most attention were the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) indexes that showed inflation was modestly softer than expected last month. The overall PCE slipped 0.1% for June while the more closely watched core reading rose just 0.1%. Forecasts had them down 0.1% and up 0.2% respectively. On an annual basis, both readings pegged forecasts of a 3.7% pace on the overall and 3.3% for the core data. The year-over-year readings were at a slower rate than May’s number to signal inflation eased slightly over the past 12 months. Accordingly, we are labeling the PCE readings good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Medium

Positive

Personal Income and Outlays

The other headline numbers in this morning’s first release were also favorable for rates. They showed personal income rose 0.2% when it was expected to be up 0.3%. Furthermore, spending was up only 0.3%, falling short of the 0.4% that was predicted. These numbers mean consumers had less income to spend and spent less than many had thought. Since consumer spending makes up such a large portion of the U.S. economy, we are considering these numbers to be slightly favorable for rates. They still show growth, but at a weaker rate than expected.

High

Neutral

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

The other major release this morning was the preliminary 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. The headline number showed the economy grew at just a 1.5% annual pace during the April through June months, falling well short of the 2.3% that was predicted. It was also a slower pace than the 2.1% pace of the first quarter of the year and the softest reading since the final three months of 2025. Slower economic growth usually makes long-term debt such as mortgage bonds more attractive to investors, so the headline reading is definitely good news for rates. However, secondary readings in the release that are related to consumption and inflation offset the lower GDP reading by showing much stronger than expected increases. In other words, the overall GDP reading is favorable for rates, but some of the other data in the report is bad news.

Medium

Negative

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Last week’s unemployment update was also released early this morning. It revealed 197,000 new claims for jobless benefits were filed last week. This was an increase from the previous week’s revised 188,000, but still lower than the 204,000 that analysts were expecting to see. An increase in weekly claims is generally considered to be favorable for bonds because it hints at weakness in the employment sector. That said, the number of filings was much lower than expected, meaning we have to label the data neutral to slightly negative for mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Employment Cost Index (Quarterly)

Tomorrow has two more pieces of economic data set for release, albeit neither are as important as the majority of this morning’s reports. Still, they carry enough influence to affect mortgage rates slightly. First will be the release of the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) at 8:30 AM ET. This report tracks employer costs for wages and benefits, giving us a measurement of wage-inflation that makes long-term securities, such as mortgage bonds, less attractive to investors. A large increase in labor costs raises concerns that employers will need to pass them onto consumers in the pricing of their products and services. A smaller increase than the expected 0.8% would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing.

Medium

Unknown

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Rev)

July's revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM ET is the final report of the week. This is another consumer confidence reading about their own personal financial situations. It is considered relevant because rising consumer confidence usually translates into higher levels of spending, adding fuel to economic growth that makes bonds less appealing to investors. Tomorrow's release is an update to the preliminary reading we saw two weeks ago, so unless we see a noticeable revision to the preliminary estimate of 54.4, the markets will probably have little reaction to this data.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Inflation News

Personal Income and Outlays

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Employment Cost Index (Quarterly)

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Rev)

Float / Lock Recommendation